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A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."